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Asset Management

Monthly House View - November 2024

Latest data in the US showed again a very resilient economy. Donald Trump has won the presidential election; Republicans took control of the US Senate and the House. Fiscal expansion, deregulation, and higher tariffs are expected, and the result should be reflationary. The Republican sweep makes the early cycle recovery we expect in the second half of next year even more likely.

Against this backdrop, we decided to go back to an overweight position in equities. This movement has been done through an increase of our US mid-cap bias. As they are very sensitive to the economic cycle, mid-caps will benefit the most from an expansion of Trump tax cuts, from the potential reshoring of critical industries as well as from the early cycle recovery.

We also decided to trim exposure on US sovereign bonds. Republicans' fiscal policy will increase US deficit, a new increase in tariffs could add price pressure and the boost to the US domestic activity after potential further corporate tax cut are weighing US sovereign bonds.

 

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